Japan Agri-Food Exports and the 2030 Expansion Target

Japan's agri-food exports hit a record ¥1,700.5 billion in 2025, up 12.8%, and the government's Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas sets a 2030 target of ¥5 trillion. A second target inside the same plan, ¥3 trillion in earnings from Japanese food businesses' overseas expansion, explicitly includes restaurant franchise growth abroad: MAFF's strategy names this a policy goal, with loans, advisory support and a certification scheme behind it. For a restaurant company, the export trend is a market signal; the ¥3 trillion target is the part that is actually about you.

1. Exports in 2025, and the trend into 2026

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) publishes agricultural, forestry and fishery product and food export figures every month, compiled from the Ministry of Finance's trade statistics. Exports were ¥1,700.5 billion in 2025, up ¥193.4 billion or 12.8% on 2024 (¥1,507.1 billion), the thirteenth record year in a row, with growth to every major destination.

Growth has continued into 2026. January to July exports totalled ¥1,042.3 billion, up 11.0% on the same period a year earlier. MAFF's next release, covering August 2026, is due 2 October 2026.

2. The 2030 targets, and where restaurant expansion sits in them

The Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas (Cabinet decision, 11 April 2025) commits to strengthening the ability of Japan's farming, forestry, fisheries and food industries to earn from abroad, and sets three targets for 2030.

The second target is the one that names your business directly. The Export Expansion Strategy (revised May 2025) states these earnings include overseas expansion by the restaurant industry, alongside food manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and commits to promoting franchise deployment by restaurant companies and local licence production by food manufacturers, explicitly including smaller companies. In policy terms, exports and opening restaurants abroad are one agenda, not two separate ones: the export trend below is evidence of demand, and the ¥3 trillion target is the government's own commitment to help you act on it.

3. Top destinations, against your restaurant count

Set against restaurant counts, the gaps point to where the export and restaurant agendas are furthest apart. China has by far the most Japanese restaurants but a comparatively modest export figure, so growth there has come mostly from local and regional sourcing rather than shipments from Japan. Hong Kong and Singapore import heavily relative to how many restaurants they have, evidence of an established retail and distribution channel a new restaurant entrant could use from day one. Growth in South Korea (+20.0%), Thailand (+17.1%) and Australia (+16.6%) outpaced the 12.8% national average, a signal of rising demand in markets that do not yet have as many Japanese restaurants as their export growth might suggest they could support.

4. Products: what grew and what it signals

Growth continued on the same lines into 2026: green tea, yellowtail and mackerel were the largest gainers in the January to July data, while live eel and sardines fell. For a company scouting a market, sustained growth in a category is a proxy for two things: an ingredient supply chain that is getting easier to use, and a consumer palate that is already primed for it. Green tea's near doubling, in particular, points to café and dessert formats spreading in markets that had little prior exposure to matcha.

5. Government schemes an expanding company can use

The Export Expansion Strategy names several measures that apply to a restaurant company's overseas expansion, not only to exporters of goods.

• Franchise and licence expansion support. The strategy commits to promoting franchise deployment by restaurant companies, including smaller ones, and local licence production by food manufacturers, as a route to overseas earnings rather than exports alone.
• Financing. Japan Finance Corporation offers long-term, low-interest loans for overseas expansion, and the Act on Facilitation of Overseas Business Investment (投資円滑化法) enables limited partnership (LPS) investment structures for building a case. Neither is restaurant specific; ask the institution whether your structure and market qualify before you plan around it.
• Advisory support. JETRO and SME Support Japan (中小企業基盤整備機構) provide hands-on ("伴走") advisory support, working with legal and tax specialists in major markets, plus export support platforms, councils of JETRO overseas offices and diplomatic missions that compile country reports on import rules and consumer preferences and connect you with Japanese restaurants already operating locally.
• Japanese ingredient supporter store certification (海外における日本産食材サポーター店認定制度). The strategy commits to using this scheme to give priority recognition, through awards and similar means, to restaurants abroad that understand Japanese food culture and are committed to using Japanese ingredients. It is a recognition scheme, not a subsidy; MAFF's published material does not set out a specific funding amount.
• Developing the chefs who will run your kitchens. As a foundation for more overseas restaurants that use Japanese ingredients continuously, the strategy lists training visits to Japan for foreign chefs of Japanese cuisine, cooking skill certification and the appointment of Japanese Cuisine Goodwill Ambassadors, who can recommend a restaurant for staff to count overseas experience toward certification.

None of these publications gives a simple eligibility checklist or a guaranteed amount; each route depends on your company's size, structure and target market. Treat this section as where to start asking, not as a funding table to plan a budget from.

6. From market case to staffing plan

An export and policy case tells you where demand is growing and that the government wants restaurant expansion to be part of that growth. It does not tell you what the people side costs or how long it takes, which is usually where an opening plan actually slips. Once you have picked a market from the data above, the next two questions are staffing and its cost.

• The staffing mix for the opening, monthly labour cost and the pre-opening ramp-up period are in labour budget for opening a restaurant abroad.
• The one-off cost of bringing a chef from Japan, visa fees included, is in budgeting an international chef hire.
• Pay rates by market, so the labour budget reflects the country you chose, are in how much to pay a sushi chef.
• Whether to second staff from Japan or hire locally in the target market, and the HR differences that follow, are in HR for Japanese restaurant companies expanding abroad.

7. Points to watch when reading the figures

• These are not restaurant purchases. Exports include goods for retail, ingredients for processing, and non-food items such as timber and ornamental carp, plus ¥103.1 billion of small parcel shipments in 2025.
• Destination is not always where it is eaten. Exports to hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore may be consumed in other countries.
• Figures are revised. The 2025 figures are MAFF's revised (確々報) release, based on corrected Ministry of Finance trade statistics.
• The two non-export targets update slowly. The ¥3 trillion overseas expansion figure is last measured for 2022 and the inbound spending figure for 2024; neither is on the same monthly cycle as the export data.

General information, not trade or investment advice. Figures were checked against MAFF publications (compiled by MAFF from the Ministry of Finance's trade statistics) as of September 2026.